Canadian Business: “Prediction: The Canadian housing market will crash”

From this Canadian Business article:

When prices do start to fall, don’t expect a quick rebound like we saw three years ago. The average home price fell by 8.5% between August 2008 and March 2009, according to the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, in a decline sparked by the financial crisis. By November, the market had already recovered. Part of the reason for the quick rebound was massive government intervention.

The Bank of Canada moved fast to slash interest rates to unprecedented lows, allowing banks to continue lending to businesses and consumers. The federal government also established a $125-billion program to buy mortgages it had already insured from banks and financial institutions, providing even more liquidity. The government ultimately bought mortgages worth a stunning $69.4 billion. The Bank of Canada has less room to manoeuvre today. The overnight rate is now 1% compared to 3% in August 2008. Cutting rates to stimulate the market is hardly an option this time. Banks have less flexibility, too. A five-year fixed rate mortgage is roughly 3.8% today, down from 5.7% in late 2008.

Doesn’t look like there’s much more the government can do to prop up the Canadian housing market. The pending correction is long, long overdue.

San Jose less affordable than New York

I always knew my hometown, Vancouver, as well as places like NY and SF were expensive places to live… but San Jose??

Doesn’t look the least bit glamorous, does it?

SJ’s affordability ratio sits at 6.9, while NY is at 6.2. (The affordability ratio is the median annual household income divided by the median house price.)

As someone who’s looking to buy in the Bay Area, this comes as a bit of a shock to me. I’ve been looking at San Jose as an affordable place to live — at least compared to places like Mountain View (home of Google), Cupertino (home of Apple), and Palo Alto (home of Facebook and countless other tech companies). No doubt that’s true; I suppose I’ve just been desensitized to the cost of housing around here.

Etude Pinot Noir

Came back from Napa a few months ago with a bottle of Etude wine.  Turns out to be one of the most delicious, sublime wines I’ve ever tasted…. It was so good, I went a bit crazy and bought an entire case of it online. Of course, I was a bit drunk at the time, so that might have explained my impulsiveness. Kudos, Etude, for deviously parting me from my hard-earned money.


Yum.

Acura is Back?

I used to have a 1996 Acura Integra that I absolutely loved, but nothing from Honda since then has really excited me, especially not since the era of the bird beak grille began. I swore I’d never buy an Acura again.

I really enjoyed driving my dad’s 2012 RDX over the holidays, though, and Acura seems to have knocked it out the park today with the unveiling of the new 2013 RDX. It’s lighter, has a naturally-aspirated V6 that looks great on paper (and hopefully won’t require premium gas like the turbocharged I-4 does), and doesn’t look half bad.  They even fixed the dashboard — the speedometer and tachometer look downright European.  They also made the center console less bulky, which is a peeve of my wife’s.

If they can keep it fun(nish) to drive, give it cargo space to rival the RAV4 or CR-V, and keep the base price under $33,000… I think they’ve just made a sale.

The case against policy intervention

From the Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive:

At the very most any policy intervention would only forestall the inevitable crash. To cause an ‘orderly unwinding’ of a bubble you require an orderly and never-ending supply of buyers willing to take on large amounts of (albeit cheap) debt to buy assets that are falling in value and still grossly overpriced….

Policy change to prop up the market via new buyers would simply delay and magnify the bust, not resolve it. The pool of people facing certain future financial hardships would grow even larger.

Truer words were never spoken.  When the housing market begins its correction (and many of us believe it already has), the last thing the government should do is try to stem the tide.  It only prolongs the pain, wastes taxpayer money, and rewards those who foolishly bought into the real estate hype.

Deleveraging is inherently a painful process, and the sooner we get it over with, the better.

Now They Tell Us: Experts Say Housing Is A Lousy Investment And Always Will Be

From this Yahoo Finance article:

Well, the experts are weighing in again. And, once again, they agree: Housing is a lousy investment. And it always will be.

But wait. Just a few years ago, weren’t the experts saying that housing was always a great investment? That house prices would always go up?

Yes, they were.

One thing you can be sure of with respect to market punditry is that experts will extrapolate recent trends into the hereafter. As will most people, actually. That’s why, no matter how many times markets overshoot, people get burned.

Buying a car for the first time in the U.S. of A

I sold my car in Canada before moving to California, so I’ve been carless for the past two and a half months.  I’ve either been getting rides to work from my very pregnant wife, or simply taking her car and leaving her stranded at home — neither of which were good long term solutions.  And with a baby on the way, it was imperative to us that we get a second car.

With our astronomical cost of rent, buying used instead of new was the only way to go.  I saved a lot of money by going this route, but finding the right car and securing the financing proved to be a massive headache.

Financing
Because I have no established history of credit in the U.S., it was tough to find a lender who would lend to me, let alone give me a decent rate.  TD Bank in the States was no help, even though I have a relationship with TD in Canada; they wanted me to have lived in the country for 2 years.  RBC Centura seemed amenable to giving me a loan, but I needed an RBC account in Canada, which I couldn’t get unless I showed up in person at a Canadian branch.  My everyday bank, Citibank, was unwilling, as was KeyPoint Credit Union, who is affiliated with Google (where I’m working).

As much as I like buying from private sellers (no overhead, so the cars are much cheaper), car dealerships were pretty aggressive when it came to financing — they’re in tough times and a bit desperate for business — but even then, the best rate Sunnyvale Acura could give me for a used car loan was around 10.5%. Not only that, but they restricted the term of the loan to the length of my work visa (3 years).

Toyota of Sunnyvale was actually quite helpful.  The financing agent there offered me 0% for 36 months on a new Prius, or 1.9% over 48 months, all based on my Canadian credit history.  Too bad that a $23,000 Prius would have cost us about $400/month over 48 months, even with 20% down and 1.9% financing.  That was a non-starter for us.

Eventually, Stanford Federal Credit Union came to my rescue.  Like KeyPoint, they are also partnered with Google, but unlike KeyPoint, they have a program to help Googlers who’ve just moved to the States and have no credit history.  With 30% down, I was able to secure a loan for 6.24% — not great, but miles better than 10.5%.

Having a car loan also helps you to build credit fast, which is exciting.  (I find credit-building exciting??  I must be getting old.)

Finding a Car
This was stressful in itself.  When you’re buying a used car, you only have so much selection to choose from.  My shortlist included the Toyota Prius, the Mazda RX-8, and the BMW 3 series… but after scouring Craigslist for weeks of not finding the right car and developing an increasing sense of despair, that list expanded to Honda Accords, 2-door Acura RSXes (completely impractical for a guy with a baby on the way), and even 14-year old Integras, which was what I’d been driving before.

My search was complicated by the fact that I wanted something with manual transmission (what real men drive), but everything out there is automatic.  (I ended up with an auto in the end — guess I’m not a real man.)

My tip is to actually drive the car before you spend a lot of time hounding Craigslist for the particular make and model.  I thought I really wanted an RX-8, but after driving a couple of them, I realized that they were underpowered and too small, despite their technically having four doors.  They are also prone to mechanical problems, which I was willing to overlook as I sifted through the discussions on Internet forums, but suddenly became unacceptable to me as I actually drove one that made Darth Vader breathing sounds from the vents.

Doing Your Due Diligence
First thing to do is to sign up for Autocheck and get the unlimited reports.  (They’re “unlimited” in that you get 50 reports, at which point you have to call and get them to give you another 50. Inconvenient, but technically unlimited, I suppose.)  First thing I did with every car that looked interesting was to do an Autocheck on the VIN to make sure it had a clean record.

The last thing I did once I found the car I wanted was to sign up for Carfax.  Carfax doesn’t have an unlimited option, so doing it last made sense.

It’s probably also a good idea to get a mechanic to inspect the car, but I cheated a bit and just inspected the engine myself.  (This crash course in car inspection helped.)  It was a local car, too, that had spent its entire life being bought from and serviced by a single dealership, despite me being its third owner.  All that, plus a test drive and a good feeling about the seller, was enough for me.

Getting Insurance
From everything I’ve heard and read, Wawanesa is a great insurance company, and their rates are almost half of what most other insurers charge.  They rely on word of mouth instead of spending heavily on advertising.  The downside is that they need a week and a half to process your application — meaning that you can’t use them for your first car purchase.

I ended up calling Esurance, told them their first quote sucked, spoke with a retentions CSR/broker who found me a decent quote from Progressive, and signed up for 6 months.  My next insurance policy will be with Wawanesa, though.

Getting the Deal Done
The seller met me at Stanford Federal Credit Union and the loan officer there did all of the legwork.  No lining up at the DMV, no figuring out what documentation was required or how to fill out DMV forms — easy peasy.  The whole process took about an hour.

I am now the proud owner of a 2006 BMW 325i that’s in pristine condition.  The last owner really took care of this car — it feels just as good as any reconditioned car on a used car lot.

I really miss shifting through gears, though. (Even if my wife certainly won’t.)