Aston Lau

Trying to time the market

I’ve been bearish on real estate ever since I started thinking about homeownership back in the summer 2005… turns out I was a few years ahead of my time. Who knew that the real estate boom would last so long? Certainly not the bears of the day. My timing was a few years off.

Well, sort of. The U.S. housing market started its correction in 2006 (but by that time I wasn’t paying much attention to real estate, since I had long ago stopped condo-hunting). There were massive foreclosures in 2006 and onwards, and well, we all know the rest of the story. But what about Canada?

It’s been a different story in Vancouver and Victoria, where I live. Prices have come down, but not spectacular fashion like our cousins south of the border.

I’m fairly certain, though, that this will change in short order. Question is, when? I’m getting sick of renting and itching to get into the market. No longer a swinging single, I now have a fiancee and we’re thinking of starting a family, and we can easily with considerable hardship afford a SFH.

I’m 95% certain that prices won’t go up anytime soon… but how long will it take for prices to go down? Will prices go down?