Canadian Business: “Prediction: The Canadian housing market will crash”

From this Canadian Business article:

When prices do start to fall, don’t expect a quick rebound like we saw three years ago. The average home price fell by 8.5% between August 2008 and March 2009, according to the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, in a decline sparked by the financial crisis. By November, the market had already recovered. Part of the reason for the quick rebound was massive government intervention.

The Bank of Canada moved fast to slash interest rates to unprecedented lows, allowing banks to continue lending to businesses and consumers. The federal government also established a $125-billion program to buy mortgages it had already insured from banks and financial institutions, providing even more liquidity. The government ultimately bought mortgages worth a stunning $69.4 billion. The Bank of Canada has less room to manoeuvre today. The overnight rate is now 1% compared to 3% in August 2008. Cutting rates to stimulate the market is hardly an option this time. Banks have less flexibility, too. A five-year fixed rate mortgage is roughly 3.8% today, down from 5.7% in late 2008.

Doesn’t look like there’s much more the government can do to prop up the Canadian housing market. The pending correction is long, long overdue.

Now They Tell Us: Experts Say Housing Is A Lousy Investment And Always Will Be

From this Yahoo Finance article:

Well, the experts are weighing in again. And, once again, they agree: Housing is a lousy investment. And it always will be.

But wait. Just a few years ago, weren’t the experts saying that housing was always a great investment? That house prices would always go up?

Yes, they were.

One thing you can be sure of with respect to market punditry is that experts will extrapolate recent trends into the hereafter. As will most people, actually. That’s why, no matter how many times markets overshoot, people get burned.

Betting against the Canadian real estate market

From this Investopedia article:

So, how can individual investors best-position themselves in the face of this potential upcoming housing bust – aside from not buying Canadian real estate, of course? This is where it gets a little different from the U.S. story.

Since CMHC is directly owned and operated by the Canadian government, there is no opportunity to short-sell CMHC or bet against it in the same way John Paulson profited immensely by betting on the demise of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And since CMHC’s toxic MBSs are guaranteed by Canadian taxpayers and are not on the books of Canadian banks, short-selling the banks or MBS investors is a dead-end as well.

For the typical individual investor, the best opportunities are probably to be found in short-selling Canadian REITs….

Interesting advice.  If I actually had any money to invest, this would be something I’d love to try.